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Nakhon Si Thammarat vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
10/8/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 8Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat55%
×Draw23%
Udon Thani22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.87
Udon Thani
1.10

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 70% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 82 away

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.80
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.06
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw
78%
Nakhon Si Thammarat or Udon Thani
77%
Draw or Udon Thani
45%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
32%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
85%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
56%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
29%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
67%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
30%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
71%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.87

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
55%
level
23%
Udon Thani scores more
22%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nakhon Si Thammarat 3–0 Udon Thani

Nakhon Si Thammarat beat Udon Thani 3-0 in Thai League 2 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium in Nakhon Si Thammarat.