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Nakhon Si Thammarat vs Ubonkids City — FA Cup 2018

Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
FT
2 – 1
Ubonkids City
Ubonkids City
3/27/2019FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat70%
×Draw14%
Ubonkids City16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Si Thammarat
3.55
Ubonkids City
1.70

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 109% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
3.11
Ubonkids City
2.50

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.89
Ubonkids City
4.00

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par
Ubonkids City+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Ubonkids City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw
84%
Nakhon Si Thammarat or Ubonkids City
86%
Draw or Ubonkids City
30%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
52%
Ubonkids City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
97%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
86%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
67%
Ubonkids City 1+ goals
82%
Ubonkids City 2+ goals
51%
Ubonkids City 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
82%
Ubonkids City (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Ubonkids City away — creates 2.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 3.11 + Ubonkids City defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.55

Ubonkids City attack 2.50 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
70%
level
14%
Ubonkids City scores more
16%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Nakhon Si Thammarat 2–1 Ubonkids City

Nakhon Si Thammarat beat Ubonkids City 2-1 in FA Cup on March 27, 2019.