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Nakhon Si Thammarat vs Phrae United — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Phrae United
Phrae United
11/7/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 12Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat48%
×Draw25%
Phrae United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.60
Phrae United
1.15

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 39% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 106 away

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.80
Phrae United
1.24

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.06
Phrae United
1.41

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par
Phrae United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Phrae United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw
73%
Nakhon Si Thammarat or Phrae United
75%
Draw or Phrae United
52%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
25%
Phrae United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
80%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
47%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
22%
Phrae United 1+ goals
68%
Phrae United 2+ goals
32%
Phrae United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
64%
Phrae United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Phrae United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Phrae United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Phrae United attack 1.24 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
48%
level
25%
Phrae United scores more
27%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakhon Si Thammarat vs Phrae United

Nakhon Si Thammarat and Phrae United drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on November 7, 2025.

The match was played at Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium.