Nakhon Si Thammarat 5–0 Khonkaen: Result & Stats

Nakhon Si Thammarat

5 – 0

Khonkaen

10/4/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundNakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat65%

×Draw17%

Khonkaen17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Si ThammaratExpected goals in this matchKhonkaen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.30

Nakhon Si Thammarat

2.63

Khonkaen

1.30

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 102% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

3.11

creates per match

1.71

0.89

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

3.11

Khonkaen

1.71

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.89

Khonkaen

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Khonkaen →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw

83%

Nakhon Si Thammarat or Khonkaen

83%

Draw or Khonkaen

35%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

44%

Khonkaen wins by 2+

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

93%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

73%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

48%

Khonkaen 1+ goals

73%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

37%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

79%

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 3.11 + Khonkaen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.63

Khonkaen attack 1.71 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

65%

level

17%

Khonkaen scores more

17%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff