Nakhon Si Thammarat 1–1 Kasetsart FC

Nakhon Si Thammarat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kasetsart FC

2/19/2026

Thai League 2 · Round 25Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat57%

×Draw23%

Kasetsart FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Si ThammaratExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.97

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.83

Kasetsart FC

0.97

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 89% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 132 away

1.80

creates per match

0.88

1.06

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.80

Kasetsart FC

0.88

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.06

Kasetsart FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw

80%

Nakhon Si Thammarat or Kasetsart FC

77%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

43%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

33%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

84%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

54%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

28%

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

62%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

25%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

74%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

57%

level

23%

Kasetsart FC scores more

20%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff