Nakhon Si Thammarat 0–1 Bangkok United

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bangkok United

11/1/2023

FA Cup · 2nd RoundNakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat40%

×Draw23%

Bangkok United38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Si ThammaratExpected goals in this matchBangkok United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.70

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.75

Bangkok United

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

3.11

creates per match

2.50

0.89

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

3.11

Bangkok United

2.50

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.89

Bangkok United

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Bangkok United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Bangkok United →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw

62%

Nakhon Si Thammarat or Bangkok United

77%

Draw or Bangkok United

60%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

21%

Bangkok United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

83%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

52%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

25%

Bangkok United 1+ goals

82%

Bangkok United 2+ goals

51%

Bangkok United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

51%

Bangkok United (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Bangkok United away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 3.11 + Bangkok United defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bangkok United attack 2.50 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

40%

level

23%

Bangkok United scores more

38%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff