Nakhon Si Thammarat 3–1 Ayutthaya FC

Nakhon Si Thammarat

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ayutthaya FC

12/10/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 17Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat47%

×Draw25%

Ayutthaya FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Si ThammaratExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.16

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.59

Ayutthaya FC

1.16

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 37% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 101 away

1.80

creates per match

1.25

1.06

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.80

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.06

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw

72%

Nakhon Si Thammarat or Ayutthaya FC

75%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

53%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

24%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

80%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

47%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

21%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

69%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

32%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

63%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

47%

level

25%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

28%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff