Ayutthaya FC 2–2 Nakhon Si Thammarat

Ayutthaya FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Nakhon Si Thammarat

10/27/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 10Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Ayutthaya FC49%

×Draw25%

Nakhon Si Thammarat26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayutthaya FCExpected goals in this matchNakhon Si Thammarat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.11

Ayutthaya FC

1.63

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.11

Ayutthaya FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

1.54

creates per match

0.97

1.26

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.54

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.97

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.26

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw

74%

Ayutthaya FC or Nakhon Si Thammarat

75%

Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat

51%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

26%

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

80%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

48%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

22%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

67%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

30%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

66%

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more

49%

level

25%

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

26%

Ayutthaya FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff