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Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi — FA Cup 2018

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FCadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Suphanburi
Suphanburi
2/8/2023FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC46%
×Draw20%
Suphanburi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.23
Suphanburi
1.88

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.80
Suphanburi
2.56

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.20
Suphanburi
1.67

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par
Suphanburi+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Suphanburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw
67%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Suphanburi
80%
Draw or Suphanburi
54%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
27%
Suphanburi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
89%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
65%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
38%
Suphanburi 1+ goals
85%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
56%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
58%
Suphanburi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Suphanburi away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.80 + Suphanburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Suphanburi attack 2.56 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
46%
level
20%
Suphanburi scores more
33%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5–1 Suphanburi

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Suphanburi 5-1 in FA Cup on February 8, 2023.

The match was played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Nakhon Ratchasima.