Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–0 Rayong FC: Result & Stats

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rayong FC

9/30/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 7His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC58%

×Draw23%

Rayong FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Ratchasima FCExpected goals in this matchRayong FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.93

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.79

Rayong FC

0.93

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 92% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

2.12

creates per match

1.45

0.41

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2.12

Rayong FC

1.45

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

0.41

Rayong FC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Rayong FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw

81%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Rayong FC

77%

Draw or Rayong FC

42%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

33%

Rayong FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

83%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

53%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

26%

Rayong FC 1+ goals

61%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

24%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

75%

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.12 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

58%

level

23%

Rayong FC scores more

19%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff