Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1–1 Ratchaburi: Result & Stats

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ratchaburi

Dudu Lima 88'

Tana 29' (pen)

2/8/2025

League #296 · Round 21His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC40%

×Draw25%

Ratchaburi34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Ratchasima FCExpected goals in this matchRatchaburi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.32

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.45

Ratchaburi

1.32

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 80 away

1.35

creates per match

1.34

1.30

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.35

Ratchaburi

1.34

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.30

Ratchaburi

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Ratchaburi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw

66%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Ratchaburi

75%

Draw or Ratchaburi

60%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

19%

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

77%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

42%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

18%

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

73%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

38%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

54%

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Ratchaburi away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.35 + Ratchaburi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ratchaburi attack 1.34 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

40%

level

25%

Ratchaburi scores more

34%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

T. Noorach

Nakhon Ratchasima FC · G

7.9

Match Events

11'

Kritsanon Srisuwan

27'

Kiatisak Chiam-udomGoal confirmed

29'

TanaPenalty

64'

A. Mungdee← K. Daniels

64'

Dudu Lima← Deyvison Fernandes

70'

Dennis Murillo

72'

S. Kunmee← W. Jiraphaksiri

74'

Somkaet Kunmee

77'

S. Chakkuprasart← J. Kaewprom

77'

S. Leeaoh← T. Tanaka

79'

Chutidet Maunchaingam

84'

Somkaet Kunmee

84'

Somkaet KunmeeCard upgrade

84'

Shinnaphat Lee Oh

88'

Dudu Lima↳ N. Biesamrit

90+7'

Nattanan Biesamrit

90+4'

Lee Jong-Cheon← Dennis Murillo

90+4'

J. Thongsaengphrao← K. Chiamudom

90+4'

Kim Ji-Min← K. Srisuwan

90+8'

S. Peenagatapho← J. Curran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NakhonRatchaburi

Overview

37%Possession63%

16Total Shots15

4Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots15

5On Target7

8Off Target4

3Blocked4

12Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

273Total Passes473

195Accurate Passes398

71%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

1Offsides0

League #296: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1–1 Ratchaburi

Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi drew 1-1 in League #296 on February 8, 2025.

Goals: Tana (29' pen), Dudu Lima (88').

Ratchaburi controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Nakhon Ratchasima.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi — League #296 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #296: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1–1 Ratchaburi