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Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Phrae United — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Phrae United
Phrae United
3/24/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 30His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC60%
×Draw23%
Phrae United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.77
Phrae United
0.82

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 116% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 106 away

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.12
Phrae United
1.24

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0.41
Phrae United
1.41

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par
Phrae United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Phrae United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw
83%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Phrae United
77%
Draw or Phrae United
40%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
34%
Phrae United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
83%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
53%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
26%
Phrae United 1+ goals
56%
Phrae United 2+ goals
20%
Phrae United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
78%
Phrae United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Phrae United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.12 + Phrae United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Phrae United attack 1.24 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
60%
level
23%
Phrae United scores more
17%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5–0 Phrae United

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Phrae United 5-0 in Thai League 2 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Nakhon Ratchasima.