Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1–0 Kasetsart FC

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kasetsart FC

8/26/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 3His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC69%

×Draw20%

Kasetsart FC11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Ratchasima FCExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.65

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.99

Kasetsart FC

0.65

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 206% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

2.12

creates per match

0.88

0.41

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2.12

Kasetsart FC

0.88

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

0.41

Kasetsart FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw

89%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Kasetsart FC

80%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

31%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

43%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

86%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

59%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

32%

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

48%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

14%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

86%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.12 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

69%

level

20%

Kasetsart FC scores more

11%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff