Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4–1 Customs United

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Customs United

11/11/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 12His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC67%

×Draw20%

Customs United13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Ratchasima FCExpected goals in this matchCustoms United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.73

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.99

Customs United

0.73

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 173% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 87 away

2.12

creates per match

1.06

0.41

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2.12

Customs United

1.06

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

0.41

Customs United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Customs United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Customs United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw

87%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Customs United

80%

Draw or Customs United

33%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

41%

Customs United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

86%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

59%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

32%

Customs United 1+ goals

52%

Customs United 2+ goals

17%

Customs United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

84%

Customs United (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Customs United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.12 + Customs United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.99

Customs United attack 1.06 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

67%

level

20%

Customs United scores more

13%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff