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Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trat FC
Trat FC
2/21/2026Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 26Nakhon Pathom Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nakhon Pathom46%
×Draw26%
Trat FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Pathom
1.52
Trat FC
1.12

Nakhon Pathom creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.46
Trat FC
1.20

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.04
Trat FC
1.57

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw
72%
Nakhon Pathom or Trat FC
74%
Draw or Trat FC
54%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
23%
Trat FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
78%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
45%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
20%
Trat FC 1+ goals
67%
Trat FC 2+ goals
31%
Trat FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
62%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more
46%
level
26%
Trat FC scores more
28%

Nakhon Pathom at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nakhon Pathom 0–1 Trat FC

Trat FC beat Nakhon Pathom 1-0 in Thai League 2 on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Stadium in Nakhon Pathom.