Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nakhon Pathom vs Samut Sakhon FC — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
FT
6 – 0
Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
3/17/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 30Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Nakhon Pathom62%
×Draw21%
Samut Sakhon FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Pathom
2.06
Samut Sakhon FC
0.98

Nakhon Pathom creates 110% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 48 away

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.46
Samut Sakhon FC
0.92

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.04
Samut Sakhon FC
2.67

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw
83%
Nakhon Pathom or Samut Sakhon FC
79%
Draw or Samut Sakhon FC
38%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
38%
Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
87%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
61%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
34%
Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
62%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
26%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
78%
Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.06

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more
62%
level
21%
Samut Sakhon FC scores more
17%

Nakhon Pathom at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nakhon Pathom 6 – 0 Samut Sakhon FC

Nakhon Pathom beat Samut Sakhon FC 6-0 in Thai League 2 on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Nakhon Pathom.