Nakhon Pathom 2–1 Khon Kaen United: Result & Stats

Nakhon Pathom

AET

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Khon Kaen United

4/24/2021

Thai League 2 · Promotion Play-offs - FinalNakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Nakhon Pathom44%

×Draw25%

Khon Kaen United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon PathomExpected goals in this matchKhon Kaen United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.22

Nakhon Pathom

1.53

Khon Kaen United

1.22

Nakhon Pathom creates 25% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

1.46

creates per match

1.40

1.04

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.46

Khon Kaen United

1.40

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.04

Khon Kaen United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Khon Kaen United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw

70%

Nakhon Pathom or Khon Kaen United

75%

Draw or Khon Kaen United

56%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

22%

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

78%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

45%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

20%

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals

70%

Khon Kaen United 2+ goals

34%

Khon Kaen United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

59%

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.53

Khon Kaen United attack 1.40 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more

44%

level

25%

Khon Kaen United scores more

30%

Nakhon Pathom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff