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Nakhon Pathom vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
3/6/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 26Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nakhon Pathom54%
×Draw24%
Kasetsart FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Pathom
1.66
Kasetsart FC
0.96

Nakhon Pathom creates 73% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 132 away

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.46
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.04
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw
78%
Nakhon Pathom or Kasetsart FC
76%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
46%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
29%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
81%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
49%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
23%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
62%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
25%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
71%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more
54%
level
24%
Kasetsart FC scores more
22%

Nakhon Pathom at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Kasetsart FC

Nakhon Pathom beat Kasetsart FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Nakhon Pathom.