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Kasetsart FC vs Nakhon Pathom — FA Cup 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathomadvanced
10/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64Insee Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kasetsart FC58%
×Draw18%
Nakhon Pathom24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
2.88
Nakhon Pathom
1.84

Kasetsart FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
4.75
Nakhon Pathom
1.43

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
2.25
Nakhon Pathom
1.00

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
76%
Kasetsart FC or Nakhon Pathom
82%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
42%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
39%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
94%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
78%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
54%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
84%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
55%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
71%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 4.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 4.75 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.43 + Kasetsart FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
58%
level
18%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
24%

Kasetsart FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs Nakhon Pathom

Nakhon Pathom beat Kasetsart FC 2-1 in FA Cup on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Insee Chantarasatit Stadium.