Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Chiangmai FC: Result & Stats

Nakhon Pathom

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chiangmai FC

1/7/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 18Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nakhon Pathom44%

×Draw26%

Chiangmai FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon PathomExpected goals in this matchChiangmai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.12

Nakhon Pathom

1.42

Chiangmai FC

1.12

Nakhon Pathom creates 27% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 82 away

1.46

creates per match

1.20

1.04

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.46

Chiangmai FC

1.20

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.04

Chiangmai FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Chiangmai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw

70%

Nakhon Pathom or Chiangmai FC

74%

Draw or Chiangmai FC

56%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

21%

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

76%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

41%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

17%

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

67%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

31%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

60%

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chiangmai FC attack 1.20 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more

44%

level

26%

Chiangmai FC scores more

30%

Nakhon Pathom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff