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Najran vs Hetten FC — Division 1 2018

Najran
Najran
FT
1 – 0
Hetten FC
Hetten FC
12/30/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 15TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Najran53%
×Draw24%
Hetten FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Najran
1.72
Hetten FC
1.07

Najran creates 61% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Najran
1.13
Hetten FC
0.89

allows per match

Najran
1.26
Hetten FC
2.32

finishing

Najran+0.00on par
Hetten FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Najran ↓

Hetten FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Najran or draw
76%
Najran or Hetten FC
76%
Draw or Hetten FC
47%

Winning margin

Najran wins by 2+
29%
Hetten FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Najran 1+ goals
82%
Najran 2+ goals
51%
Najran 3+ goals
25%
Hetten FC 1+ goals
66%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
29%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Najran (draw refunded)
69%
Hetten FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Najran at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Hetten FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Najran attack 1.13 + Hetten FC defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.72

Hetten FC attack 0.89 + Najran defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Najran scores more
53%
level
24%
Hetten FC scores more
24%

Najran at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Najran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Najran 1–0 Hetten FC

Najran beat Hetten FC 1-0 in Division 1 on December 30, 2019.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.