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Najran vs Al Arabi SC — Division 1 2018

Najran
Najran
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
A. Akono 58'
3/18/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 26Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Najran40%
×Draw26%
Al Arabi SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Najran
1.36
Al Arabi SC
1.22

Najran creates 11% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 68 away

creates per match

Najran
1.13
Al Arabi SC
1.18

allows per match

Najran
1.26
Al Arabi SC
1.59

finishing

Najran+0.00on par
Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Najran ↓

Al Arabi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Najran or draw
67%
Najran or Al Arabi SC
74%
Draw or Al Arabi SC
60%

Winning margin

Najran wins by 2+
18%
Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Najran 1+ goals
74%
Najran 2+ goals
39%
Najran 3+ goals
16%
Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
70%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
34%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Najran (draw refunded)
54%
Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Najran at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Najran attack 1.13 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Najran defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Najran scores more
40%
level
26%
Al Arabi SC scores more
33%

Najran at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Najran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
A. Akono

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Najran vs Al Arabi SC

Najran beat Al Arabi SC 1-0 in Division 1 on March 18, 2023.

Goals: A. Akono (58').

The match was played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Najran.