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Najran vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Division 1 2018

Najran
Najran
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3/7/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 24Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Najran24%
×Draw29%
Al-Ahli Jeddah47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Najran
0.83
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.27

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 53% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

creates per match

Najran
1.13
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.29

allows per match

Najran
1.26
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0.53

finishing

Najran+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Najran ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Najran or draw
53%
Najran or Al-Ahli Jeddah
71%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
76%

Winning margin

Najran wins by 2+
8%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Najran 1+ goals
56%
Najran 2+ goals
20%
Najran 3+ goals
5%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
72%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
36%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Najran (draw refunded)
34%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Najran at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Najran attack 1.13 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.83

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.29 + Najran defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Najran scores more
24%
level
29%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
47%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Najran vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Najran 2-0 in Division 1 on March 7, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Najran.