Naivas 3–0 Zoo Kericho: Result & Stats

Naivas

FT

3 – 0

Zoo Kericho

1/27/2022

Super League · Round 4Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Naivas48%

×Draw24%

Zoo Kericho28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaivasExpected goals in this matchZoo Kericho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.19

Naivas

1.65

Zoo Kericho

1.19

Naivas creates 39% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 14 away

1.66

creates per match

1.64

0.73

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Naivas

1.66

Zoo Kericho

1.64

allows per match

Naivas

0.73

Zoo Kericho

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Zoo Kericho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Naivas or draw

72%

Naivas or Zoo Kericho

76%

Draw or Zoo Kericho

52%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+

25%

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals

81%

Naivas 2+ goals

49%

Naivas 3+ goals

23%

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals

70%

Zoo Kericho 2+ goals

33%

Zoo Kericho 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)

64%

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Naivas scores more

48%

level

24%

Zoo Kericho scores more

28%

Naivas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff