Naivas 2–0 Nairobi United: Result & Stats

Naivas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nairobi United

2/3/2024

Super League · Round 18Mpesa Foundation Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Naivas40%

×Draw29%

Nairobi United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaivasExpected goals in this matchNairobi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.02

Naivas

1.18

Nairobi United

1.02

Naivas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 37 away

1.66

creates per match

1.30

0.73

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Naivas

1.66

Nairobi United

1.30

allows per match

Naivas

0.73

Nairobi United

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par

Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Nairobi United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Naivas or draw

69%

Naivas or Nairobi United

71%

Draw or Nairobi United

60%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+

17%

Nairobi United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals

69%

Naivas 2+ goals

33%

Naivas 3+ goals

12%

Nairobi United 1+ goals

64%

Nairobi United 2+ goals

27%

Nairobi United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)

56%

Nairobi United (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.18

Nairobi United attack 1.30 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naivas scores more

40%

level

29%

Nairobi United scores more

31%

Naivas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff