Naivas 3–0 Mulembe United: Result & Stats

Naivas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mulembe United

12/2/2023

Super League · Round 12Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Naivas58%

×Draw25%

Mulembe United18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaivasExpected goals in this matchMulembe United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.76

Naivas

1.61

Mulembe United

0.76

Naivas creates 112% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 36 away

1.66

creates per match

0.78

0.73

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Naivas

1.66

Mulembe United

0.78

allows per match

Naivas

0.73

Mulembe United

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par

Mulembe United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Mulembe United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Naivas or draw

82%

Naivas or Mulembe United

75%

Draw or Mulembe United

42%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+

31%

Mulembe United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals

80%

Naivas 2+ goals

48%

Naivas 3+ goals

22%

Mulembe United 1+ goals

53%

Mulembe United 2+ goals

18%

Mulembe United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)

77%

Mulembe United (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Mulembe United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Mulembe United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mulembe United attack 0.78 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Naivas scores more

58%

level

25%

Mulembe United scores more

18%

Naivas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff