Naivas 1–0 Mombasa Elite: Result & Stats

Naivas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mombasa Elite

12/16/2023

Super League · Round 14Mpesa Foundation Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Naivas58%

×Draw24%

Mombasa Elite17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaivasExpected goals in this matchMombasa Elite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.76

Naivas

1.64

Mombasa Elite

0.76

Naivas creates 116% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 91 away

1.66

creates per match

0.78

0.73

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Naivas

1.66

Mombasa Elite

0.78

allows per match

Naivas

0.73

Mombasa Elite

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Mombasa Elite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Naivas or draw

83%

Naivas or Mombasa Elite

76%

Draw or Mombasa Elite

42%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+

32%

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals

81%

Naivas 2+ goals

49%

Naivas 3+ goals

23%

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals

53%

Mombasa Elite 2+ goals

18%

Mombasa Elite 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)

77%

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Naivas scores more

58%

level

24%

Mombasa Elite scores more

17%

Naivas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff