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Mombasa Elite vs Naivas — Super League 2018

Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Naivas
Naivas
6/8/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Mombasa Elite40%
×Draw29%
Naivas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mombasa Elite
1.17
Naivas
1.00

Mombasa Elite creates 17% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

creates per match

Mombasa Elite
1.36
Naivas
1.07

allows per match

Mombasa Elite
0.94
Naivas
0.97

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par
Naivas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

Naivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw
69%
Mombasa Elite or Naivas
71%
Draw or Naivas
60%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
17%
Naivas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
69%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
33%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
11%
Naivas 1+ goals
63%
Naivas 2+ goals
26%
Naivas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
56%
Naivas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

Naivas away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.97 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + Naivas defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Naivas attack 1.07 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more
40%
level
29%
Naivas scores more
31%

Mombasa Elite at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mombasa Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mombasa Elite 0–2 Naivas

Naivas beat Mombasa Elite 2-0 in Super League on June 8, 2025.