Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Naivas vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Naivas
Naivas
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Migori Youth
Migori Youth
1/17/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Naivas52%
×Draw27%
Migori Youth21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naivas
1.46
Migori Youth
0.82

Naivas creates 78% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 91 away

creates per match

Naivas
1.66
Migori Youth
0.91

allows per match

Naivas
0.73
Migori Youth
1.25

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par
Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Migori Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Naivas or draw
79%
Naivas or Migori Youth
73%
Draw or Migori Youth
48%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+
26%
Migori Youth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals
77%
Naivas 2+ goals
43%
Naivas 3+ goals
18%
Migori Youth 1+ goals
56%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
20%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)
71%
Migori Youth (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Naivas scores more
52%
level
27%
Migori Youth scores more
21%

Naivas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Naivas 2–4 Migori Youth

Migori Youth beat Naivas 4-2 in Super League on January 17, 2026.