Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Naivas vs Mathare United — Super League 2018

Naivas
Naivas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Mathare United
Mathare United
Unknown 83'
B. Maeri 57'
D. Odhiambo 42'
M. Kilume 8'
5/10/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Naivas46%
×Draw26%
Mathare United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naivas
1.44
Mathare United
1.05

Naivas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 19 away

creates per match

Naivas
1.66
Mathare United
1.37

allows per match

Naivas
0.73
Mathare United
1.21

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Naivas or draw
72%
Naivas or Mathare United
74%
Draw or Mathare United
54%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+
22%
Mathare United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals
76%
Naivas 2+ goals
42%
Naivas 3+ goals
18%
Mathare United 1+ goals
65%
Mathare United 2+ goals
28%
Mathare United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)
63%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Mathare United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Mathare United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mathare United attack 1.37 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Naivas scores more
46%
level
26%
Mathare United scores more
28%

Naivas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Kilume
42'
D. Odhiambo
57'
B. Maeri
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naivas vs Mathare United

Mathare United beat Naivas 3-1 in Super League on May 10, 2024.

Goals: M. Kilume (8'), D. Odhiambo (42'), B. Maeri (57'), ? (83').

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.