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Naivas vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Naivas
Naivas
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
1/13/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Naivas46%
×Draw27%
Mara Sugar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naivas
1.40
Mara Sugar
1.02

Naivas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 52 away

creates per match

Naivas
1.66
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Naivas
0.73
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Naivas or draw
73%
Naivas or Mara Sugar
73%
Draw or Mara Sugar
54%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+
22%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals
75%
Naivas 2+ goals
41%
Naivas 3+ goals
17%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
64%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
27%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)
62%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Naivas scores more
46%
level
27%
Mara Sugar scores more
27%

Naivas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Naivas 3–2 Mara Sugar

Naivas beat Mara Sugar 3-2 in Super League on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.