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Naivas vs Dimba Patriots — Super League 2018

Naivas
Naivas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
4/6/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Mpesa Foundation Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Naivas54%
×Draw27%
Dimba Patriots18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naivas
1.42
Dimba Patriots
0.70

Naivas creates 103% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 27 away

creates per match

Naivas
1.66
Dimba Patriots
0.67

allows per match

Naivas
0.73
Dimba Patriots
1.19

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par
Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Dimba Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naivas or draw
82%
Naivas or Dimba Patriots
73%
Draw or Dimba Patriots
46%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+
27%
Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals
76%
Naivas 2+ goals
41%
Naivas 3+ goals
17%
Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
50%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
16%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)
75%
Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Naivas scores more
54%
level
27%
Dimba Patriots scores more
18%

Naivas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naivas vs Dimba Patriots

Naivas beat Dimba Patriots 1-0 in Super League on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Mpesa Foundation Academy in Thika.