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Naivas vs Darajani Gogo — Super League 2018

Naivas
Naivas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
5/10/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 32Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Naivas54%
×Draw27%
Darajani Gogo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naivas
1.47
Darajani Gogo
0.77

Naivas creates 91% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 72 away

creates per match

Naivas
1.66
Darajani Gogo
0.82

allows per match

Naivas
0.73
Darajani Gogo
1.28

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par
Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Darajani Gogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Naivas or draw
80%
Naivas or Darajani Gogo
73%
Draw or Darajani Gogo
46%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+
27%
Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals
77%
Naivas 2+ goals
43%
Naivas 3+ goals
18%
Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
54%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
18%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)
73%
Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.47

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Naivas scores more
54%
level
27%
Darajani Gogo scores more
20%

Naivas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naivas vs Darajani Gogo

Naivas and Darajani Gogo drew 2-2 in Super League on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.