Naivas 1–0 Dandora Love: Result & Stats

Naivas

FT

1 – 0

Dandora Love

5/1/2022

Super League · Round 23Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Naivas65%

×Draw20%

Dandora Love15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaivasExpected goals in this matchDandora Love

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.86

Naivas

2.06

Dandora Love

0.86

Naivas creates 140% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 15 away

1.66

creates per match

1.00

0.73

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Naivas

1.66

Dandora Love

1.00

allows per match

Naivas

0.73

Dandora Love

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par

Dandora Love+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Dandora Love →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Naivas or draw

85%

Naivas or Dandora Love

80%

Draw or Dandora Love

35%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+

41%

Dandora Love wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals

87%

Naivas 2+ goals

61%

Naivas 3+ goals

34%

Dandora Love 1+ goals

58%

Dandora Love 2+ goals

21%

Dandora Love 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)

81%

Dandora Love (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Dandora Love away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Dandora Love defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.06

Dandora Love attack 1.00 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Naivas scores more

65%

level

20%

Dandora Love scores more

15%

Naivas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff