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Nairobi United vs Vihiga Bullets — Super League 2018

Nairobi United
Nairobi United
FT
1 – 1
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
11/11/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nairobi United60%
×Draw23%
Vihiga Bullets18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi United
1.80
Vihiga Bullets
0.86

Nairobi United creates 109% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

creates per match

Nairobi United
1.92
Vihiga Bullets
0.84

allows per match

Nairobi United
0.89
Vihiga Bullets
1.68

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw
82%
Nairobi United or Vihiga Bullets
77%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
40%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+
34%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals
83%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
54%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
27%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
58%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
21%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)
77%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.92 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.80

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nairobi United scores more
60%
level
23%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
18%

Nairobi United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nairobi United 1–1 Vihiga Bullets

Nairobi United and Vihiga Bullets drew 1-1 in Super League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.