Nairobi United 2–3 Mathare United: Result & Stats

Nairobi United

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Mathare United

6/7/2024

Super League · Round 35Mpesa Foundation Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nairobi United47%

×Draw25%

Mathare United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairobi UnitedExpected goals in this matchMathare United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.13

Nairobi United

1.56

Mathare United

1.13

Nairobi United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

1.92

creates per match

1.37

0.89

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Nairobi United

1.92

Mathare United

1.37

allows per match

Nairobi United

0.89

Mathare United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par

Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

Mathare United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw

72%

Nairobi United or Mathare United

75%

Draw or Mathare United

53%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+

24%

Mathare United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals

79%

Nairobi United 2+ goals

46%

Nairobi United 3+ goals

21%

Mathare United 1+ goals

68%

Mathare United 2+ goals

31%

Mathare United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)

63%

Mathare United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Mathare United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.92 + Mathare United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mathare United attack 1.37 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nairobi United scores more

47%

level

25%

Mathare United scores more

28%

Nairobi United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff