Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Nairobi United47%
Mara Sugar27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nairobi United creates 39% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 52 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nairobi United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches
Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nairobi United attack 1.92 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.53
Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Nairobi United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Migori Youth
3K
Equity Bank
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
Fortune Sacco
Naivas
Talanta
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
Kisumu All Stars
Darajani Gogo
Nairobi City Stars
Vihiga United FC
MCF
Mwatate UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Nairobi United host Mara Sugar on Saturday, 16 December 2023 at 12:00. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
Super League: Nairobi United 0–2 Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar beat Nairobi United 2-0 in Super League on December 16, 2023.
The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.