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Nairobi United vs Luanda Villa — Super League 2018

Nairobi United
Nairobi United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
3/9/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Mpesa Foundation Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nairobi United57%
×Draw25%
Luanda Villa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi United
1.61
Luanda Villa
0.77

Nairobi United creates 109% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 56 away

creates per match

Nairobi United
1.92
Luanda Villa
0.64

allows per match

Nairobi United
0.89
Luanda Villa
1.30

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par
Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

Luanda Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw
82%
Nairobi United or Luanda Villa
75%
Draw or Luanda Villa
43%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+
31%
Luanda Villa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals
80%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
48%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
22%
Luanda Villa 1+ goals
54%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
18%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)
76%
Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.92 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nairobi United scores more
57%
level
25%
Luanda Villa scores more
18%

Nairobi United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nairobi United 2–1 Luanda Villa

Nairobi United beat Luanda Villa 2-1 in Super League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Mpesa Foundation Academy in Thika.