Nairobi United 2–0 Gusii: Result & Stats

Nairobi United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gusii

12/20/2023

Super League · Round 3Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nairobi United61%

×Draw23%

Gusii16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairobi UnitedExpected goals in this matchGusii

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.80

Nairobi United

1.80

Gusii

0.80

Nairobi United creates 125% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

1.92

creates per match

0.72

0.89

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Nairobi United

1.92

Gusii

0.72

allows per match

Nairobi United

0.89

Gusii

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par

Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

Gusii →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw

84%

Nairobi United or Gusii

77%

Draw or Gusii

39%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+

35%

Gusii wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals

83%

Nairobi United 2+ goals

54%

Nairobi United 3+ goals

27%

Gusii 1+ goals

55%

Gusii 2+ goals

19%

Gusii 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)

79%

Gusii (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.92 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.80

Gusii attack 0.72 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nairobi United scores more

61%

level

23%

Gusii scores more

16%

Nairobi United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff