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Nairobi United vs Darajani Gogo — Super League 2018

Nairobi United
Nairobi United
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
3/22/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nairobi United55%
×Draw25%
Darajani Gogo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi United
1.60
Darajani Gogo
0.85

Nairobi United creates 88% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 72 away

creates per match

Nairobi United
1.92
Darajani Gogo
0.82

allows per match

Nairobi United
0.89
Darajani Gogo
1.28

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par
Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

Darajani Gogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw
80%
Nairobi United or Darajani Gogo
75%
Draw or Darajani Gogo
45%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+
29%
Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals
80%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
47%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
22%
Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
57%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
21%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)
73%
Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.92 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.60

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nairobi United scores more
55%
level
25%
Darajani Gogo scores more
20%

Nairobi United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi United vs Darajani Gogo

Nairobi United beat Darajani Gogo 4-1 in Super League on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.