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Nairobi Stima vs Kenya Police — Super League 2018

Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
FT
1 – 1
Kenya Police
Kenya Police
10/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 38

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nairobi Stima53%
×Draw27%
Kenya Police20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi Stima
1.47
Kenya Police
0.79

Nairobi Stima creates 86% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nairobi Stima
1.88
Kenya Police
0.94

allows per match

Nairobi Stima
0.65
Kenya Police
1.06

finishing

Nairobi Stima+0.00on par
Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi Stima ↓

Kenya Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nairobi Stima or draw
80%
Nairobi Stima or Kenya Police
73%
Draw or Kenya Police
47%

Winning margin

Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
27%
Kenya Police wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
77%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
43%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
18%
Kenya Police 1+ goals
55%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
19%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
73%
Kenya Police (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi Stima at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi Stima attack 1.88 + Kenya Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kenya Police attack 0.94 + Nairobi Stima defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nairobi Stima scores more
53%
level
27%
Kenya Police scores more
20%

Nairobi Stima at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nairobi Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi Stima vs Kenya Police

Nairobi Stima and Kenya Police drew 1-1 in Super League on October 7, 2018.