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Nairobi Stima vs Isibania — Super League 2018

Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
FT
1 – 1
Isibania
Isibania
3/31/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nairobi Stima70%
×Draw20%
Isibania10%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi Stima
1.91
Isibania
0.55

Nairobi Stima creates 247% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nairobi Stima
1.88
Isibania
0.44

allows per match

Nairobi Stima
0.65
Isibania
1.94

finishing

Nairobi Stima+0.00on par
Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi Stima ↓

Isibania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nairobi Stima or draw
90%
Nairobi Stima or Isibania
80%
Draw or Isibania
30%

Winning margin

Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
43%
Isibania wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
85%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
57%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
30%
Isibania 1+ goals
42%
Isibania 2+ goals
11%
Isibania 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
88%
Isibania (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi Stima at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi Stima attack 1.88 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.91

Isibania attack 0.44 + Nairobi Stima defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Nairobi Stima scores more
70%
level
20%
Isibania scores more
10%

Nairobi Stima at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Nairobi Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nairobi Stima 1–1 Isibania

Nairobi Stima and Isibania drew 1-1 in Super League on March 31, 2018.