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Nairobi Stima vs FC Talanta — Super League 2018

Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
FT
3 – 0
FC Talanta
FC Talanta
3/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nairobi Stima51%
×Draw26%
FC Talanta23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi Stima
1.52
FC Talanta
0.94

Nairobi Stima creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nairobi Stima
1.88
FC Talanta
1.22

allows per match

Nairobi Stima
0.65
FC Talanta
1.17

finishing

Nairobi Stima+0.00on par
FC Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi Stima ↓

FC Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nairobi Stima or draw
77%
Nairobi Stima or FC Talanta
74%
Draw or FC Talanta
49%

Winning margin

Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
26%
FC Talanta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
78%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
45%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
20%
FC Talanta 1+ goals
61%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
24%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
68%
FC Talanta (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi Stima at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

FC Talanta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi Stima attack 1.88 + FC Talanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Talanta attack 1.22 + Nairobi Stima defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nairobi Stima scores more
51%
level
26%
FC Talanta scores more
23%

Nairobi Stima at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nairobi Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi Stima vs FC Talanta

Nairobi Stima beat FC Talanta 3-0 in Super League on March 7, 2018.