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Nairobi City Stars vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
1 – 2
Western Stima
Western Stima
8/28/2015FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 26Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Nairobi City Stars39%
×Draw29%
Western Stima32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.17
Western Stima
1.02

Nairobi City Stars creates 15% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 56 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.12
Western Stima
0.98

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.07
Western Stima
1.21

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
68%
Nairobi City Stars or Western Stima
71%
Draw or Western Stima
61%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
17%
Western Stima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
69%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
33%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
11%
Western Stima 1+ goals
64%
Western Stima 2+ goals
27%
Western Stima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
55%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.07 · 92 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.12 + Western Stima defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Western Stima attack 0.98 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
39%
level
29%
Western Stima scores more
32%

Nairobi City Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi City Stars vs Western Stima

Western Stima beat Nairobi City Stars 2-1 in FKF Premier League on August 28, 2015.

The match was played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi.