Nairobi City Stars 1–1 Ushuru FC: Result & Stats

Nairobi City Stars

FT

1 – 1

Ushuru FC

3/7/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nairobi City Stars29%

×Draw29%

Ushuru FC42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairobi City StarsExpected goals in this matchUshuru FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.21

Nairobi City Stars

0.94

Ushuru FC

1.21

Ushuru FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

1.47

0.95

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars

1.11

Ushuru FC

1.47

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars

0.95

Ushuru FC

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Ushuru FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw

58%

Nairobi City Stars or Ushuru FC

71%

Draw or Ushuru FC

71%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+

10%

Ushuru FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals

61%

Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals

24%

Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals

7%

Ushuru FC 1+ goals

70%

Ushuru FC 2+ goals

34%

Ushuru FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)

40%

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Ushuru FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.11 + Ushuru FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ushuru FC attack 1.47 + Nairobi City Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more

29%

level

29%

Ushuru FC scores more

42%

Ushuru FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff