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Nairobi City Stars vs Posta Rangers FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
5/18/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 32Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Nairobi City Stars38%
×Draw29%
Posta Rangers FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.16
Posta Rangers FC
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 149 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.18
Posta Rangers FC
1.03

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.09
Posta Rangers FC
1.14

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Posta Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
67%
Nairobi City Stars or Posta Rangers FC
71%
Draw or Posta Rangers FC
62%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
16%
Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
69%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
32%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
11%
Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
65%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
29%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
54%
Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 85 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.18 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
38%
level
29%
Posta Rangers FC scores more
33%

Nairobi City Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nairobi City Stars 1–1 Posta Rangers FC

Nairobi City Stars and Posta Rangers FC drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.