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Nairobi City Stars vs Kangemi All Stars — Super League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
1 – 0
Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
3/18/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nairobi City Stars48%
×Draw27%
Kangemi All Stars26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.43
Kangemi All Stars
0.97

Nairobi City Stars creates 47% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.14
Kangemi All Stars
1.00

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
0.94
Kangemi All Stars
1.72

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Kangemi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
74%
Nairobi City Stars or Kangemi All Stars
73%
Draw or Kangemi All Stars
52%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
23%
Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
76%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
42%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
17%
Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
62%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
25%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
65%
Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.14 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + Nairobi City Stars defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
48%
level
27%
Kangemi All Stars scores more
26%

Nairobi City Stars at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nairobi City Stars 1–0 Kangemi All Stars

Nairobi City Stars beat Kangemi All Stars 1-0 in Super League on March 18, 2018.