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Nairobi City Stars vs Isibania — Super League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
4 – 0
Isibania
Isibania
8/1/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nairobi City Stars57%
×Draw26%
Isibania17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.52
Isibania
0.69

Nairobi City Stars creates 120% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.11
Isibania
0.44

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
0.95
Isibania
1.94

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Isibania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
83%
Nairobi City Stars or Isibania
74%
Draw or Isibania
43%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
30%
Isibania wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
78%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
45%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
20%
Isibania 1+ goals
50%
Isibania 2+ goals
15%
Isibania 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
77%
Isibania (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.11 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Isibania attack 0.44 + Nairobi City Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
57%
level
26%
Isibania scores more
17%

Nairobi City Stars at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi City Stars vs Isibania

Nairobi City Stars beat Isibania 4-0 in Super League on August 1, 2018.