Nairobi City Stars 0–1 Green Commandos

Nairobi City Stars

FT

0 – 1

Green Commandos

10/13/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nairobi City Stars51%

×Draw27%

Green Commandos22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairobi City StarsExpected goals in this matchGreen Commandos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.83

Nairobi City Stars

1.43

Green Commandos

0.83

Nairobi City Stars creates 72% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 16 away

1.11

creates per match

0.69

0.97

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars

1.11

Green Commandos

0.69

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars

0.97

Green Commandos

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Green Commandos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw

78%

Nairobi City Stars or Green Commandos

73%

Draw or Green Commandos

49%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+

25%

Green Commandos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals

76%

Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals

42%

Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals

17%

Green Commandos 1+ goals

56%

Green Commandos 2+ goals

20%

Green Commandos 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)

70%

Green Commandos (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.11 + Green Commandos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Green Commandos attack 0.69 + Nairobi City Stars defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more

51%

level

27%

Green Commandos scores more

22%

Nairobi City Stars at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff