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Nairobi City Stars vs GFE 105 — Super League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
1 – 0
GFE 105
GFE 105
4/4/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nairobi City Stars57%
×Draw26%
GFE 10517%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.52
GFE 105
0.71

Nairobi City Stars creates 114% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.11
GFE 105
0.47

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
0.95
GFE 105
1.94

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
GFE 105+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

GFE 105 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
83%
Nairobi City Stars or GFE 105
74%
Draw or GFE 105
43%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
30%
GFE 105 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
78%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
45%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
20%
GFE 105 1+ goals
51%
GFE 105 2+ goals
16%
GFE 105 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
77%
GFE 105 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

GFE 105 away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.11 + GFE 105 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

GFE 105 attack 0.47 + Nairobi City Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
57%
level
26%
GFE 105 scores more
17%

Nairobi City Stars at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi City Stars vs GFE 105

Nairobi City Stars beat GFE 105 1-0 in Super League on April 4, 2018.